I see a lot of potential for mistakes in this year’s free agent crop. There’s some good free agents available, but not really many at whom you’d want to throw max dollars. There’s also not a lot of teams with big-time cap room. Everyone’s got the mid-level exception to play with (about $5 million per), but only a few teams have substantial legal tender: The Cavs, Hawks, Bobcats, Hornets and Clippers. Some other teams like the Bulls, Sonics, and Bucks have money, but will probably opt to spend it on their own guys. The Bobcats probably aren’t going to do a lot of heavy spending, either
Guys who could potentially be overpaid:
Michael Redd. He’s one of the better players available, and there’s a lot of teams that want him. No disrespect intended, though, but he’s not a max-contract type of player. He’s not a first offensive option, and if a team pays him like he is, they’re probably going to regret it.
Stromile Swift. He’s almost certainly gone from Memphis, and considering that Adonal Foyle got $8 million per last summer… who knows what’s going to happen with Stro. He’s young, he’s athletic, he’s long, he can run fast, and jump high… but he’s not really all that good at playing offense or defense, which are two fairly vital things.
Kwame Brown. As much as I’d love to see it happen for him… at a certain point, it just is what it is. Kwame will get a nice offer from someone, because he’s still young, 7-feet-tall and can jump over buildings… and then he will probably continue to not be all that good. He is restricted, though, and the Wizzers can match any offer, through I doubt they would if it were in the $6 million per range.
Udonis Haslem. Again, he’s restricted, but it looks like the Heat are seriously concerned about losing him. That’s what the Wayne Simien draft pick says to me, anyway. He’s a good rebounder, a hard worker, and he’s developed a decent jumpshot, but that’s in a situation that’s been 100% ideal for him. If another team expects similar production, they’ll probably be disappointed.
Guys who I think could be good deals:
Antonio Daniels. He’s a point guard. And I don’t just mean that the position listed next to his name is the box score is PG, I mean, he plays like a point guard. A very good one. He makes good decisions, he’s a good passer, he can score, and he seems like a floor general. He’s not spectacular, but for a lot of teams… he could be exactly what they need. A team like the Hawks should be all over him.
Jerome James. Or, as they called him on TNT through the playoffs… Bill Russell. It’s a risk, but I think it’s worth it. He’s spent his career playing very poorly. In the playoffs this year, though… he became a man. I don’t know what got into him… supposedly, it all started with a phone call from his mother. But for a while, Jerome James was playing at a level that very few centers in this league can match. And if he doesn’t work out, then… well, at least he’s still tall, which makes him about an average NBA center.
Luke Walton. He’s restricted, and I doubt he’s leaving LA, but… it’s worth a shot for other GMs. I think Luke Walton could have a long career as a glue guy… someone who can come in, won’t make mistakes, will make the right pass, play some defense, and hit threes if he’s left open. But Phillip likes him, and he’s a west coast guy, so I doubt he’s going anywhere.
Flip Murray. Also restricted, but I think he can be a great bench scorer. Offensively, he’s very versatile, and for a team that needs someone to give it a spark off the bench, he could be a great fit. Opportunities have been limited for him in Seattle, and a lot will depend on what goes down with Ray Allen and Antonio Daniels, but I think he’s worth pursuing.
