First Team:
G – Kobe Bryant (33)
G – Dwyane Wade (29)
F – LeBron James (27)
F – Dwight Howard (26)
C – Yao Ming (31)
Second Team:
G – Chris Paul (26)
G – Tony Parker (29)
F – Elton Brand (32)
F – Amare Stoudamire (29)
C – Chris Kaman (29)
Third Team:
G – Gilbert Arenas (29)
G – Shaun Livingston (26)
F – Dirk Nowitzki (33)
F – Pau Gasol (31)
C – Nenad Krstic (28)
Honorable Mentions:
G – Kirk Hinrich (30), T.J. Ford (28), Ben Gordon (28), Deron Williams (27), Joe Johnson (30), Jameer Nelson (29), Devin Harris (28), Manu Ginobili (34), Andre Igoudala (27), Michael Redd (32)
F – Carmelo Anthony (27), Ron Artest (32), Tayshaun Prince (31), Chris Bosh (27), Josh Howard (31), Kevin Garnett (35), Boris Diaw (29), Danny Granger (28), Anderson Varejao (29), Marvin Williams (25), Luol Deng (26), Lamar Odom (32), Shawn Marion (33), Kwame Brown (29)
C – Charlie Villanueva (27), Andrew Bogut (27), Emeka Okafor (29), Darko Milicic (26), Channing Frye (28)
Now, obivously, some players who are yet undrafted will emerge as stars, but I didn’t see any point in project them onto this list. And some of the guys at the ends of the honorable mentions lists are reaches. Kwame Brown, for example.
But looking at this thing, whoever’s drafted in the next few years is going to have to have a major pair of balls if they want to crack an All-NBA team in their first five years in the league. How nicely is the NBA set-up for the future? Only five guys in the Top 15 there will be over 30, 5 years from now. That’s incredible. Even the lists of honorable mentions are damn impressive.
That really was the point of putting this together… to illustrate the amazing era that the NBA is about to usher in. But in doing so, a couple of other things stood out:
The future is not quite as guard-centric as I thought it would be. The forward list is still pretty nice, and the center cabinet isn’t as bare as I thought it was. Granted, a lot of them are swingmen-type forwards, but the league won’t be completely devoid of post players, either. Granted, there may not be a single Patrick Ewing in the group, but it could still be alright.
A few teams with multiple players on this last have some nice futures: The Magic stand out, with Jameer Nelson, Dwight Howard, and Darko “Perhaps I’m Reaching” Milicic. The Clippers, if they hang on to Brand, Kaman, and Shaun Livingston, could be the NBA’s next great team. The Raptors could have the best big-man tandem in the league with Villanueva and Bosh. The Bulls could have a dominant backcourt with Hinrich and Gordon.
The guy who gets the worst news is Dwyane Wade. The Heat have nothing else on the list, and really, had no one even close. LeBron’s not faring much better with just Anderson Varejao, who’s probably also a little bit of a reach.
Chucky Atkins Jr.
Yao Ming as the first team center? Huh? That is insane. Granted, the future doesn’t look good for the 5 spot, especially with “centers” like Dwight Howard and Amare both fitting in as power forwards. But in five years time, I can’t see any situation where I’d rather have Yao as my center over Emeka Okafor.
May 23, 2006 at 11:04 am
Bouj
I’d take Yao over Taye Diggs any day, and I really like Taye too. Yao became a force over the last half of this season.
Is T-Mac’s bad back a factor in him not making this list at all? I am assuming it is, since I have a sneaking suspicion that he’s not going to be around in 5 years because of it.
May 23, 2006 at 11:25 am
Rob
Pretty good list. Not many you could argue with. I do wonder if Kobe has the gas to be that good at age 35. I’d have Emeka Okafor and Carmelo Anthony on a team, with Amare Stoudamire and Pau Gasol with the honorables.
What will be cool is when the Nashes and Wades spring up, players who are currently not well thought of but who will spring to life to steal MVPs and kudos from the so-called bigger dogs. My money is on Tayshaun Prince.
May 23, 2006 at 12:13 pm
KD
Chucky, if Emeka is averaging 22 and 10 (in 34 minutes) in two years (at age 25) like Yao averaged this year, I’ll Craig Sager’s cloth cap.
What’s nutty is that this list doesn’t even take into account the players the league will take in from Drafts 2007-2010.
May 23, 2006 at 1:10 pm
SRL
Rob, anyone who didn’t “think highly” of Wade coming out of college must have been dumb seeing as he was insanely good at Marquette. He hardly “sprang up” on anyone.
May 23, 2006 at 1:20 pm
Shobs
Carmelo as honorable mention? Insanity.
May 23, 2006 at 1:43 pm
the mighty mjd
Exactly how am I supposed to take into account players who are going to be drafted in 2010…
May 23, 2006 at 2:30 pm
KD
You’re not, MJD, I was just offering it as a bit of perspective. Chill, baby.
It’s a like an article detailing how awesome Maya Rudolph is from a few years ago, before knowing she was going to get hitched, have a kid, and “sprang up” some sweetass post-baby boobs.
May 23, 2006 at 2:43 pm
Rob
SRL -
No offense to Wade. I guess I could have worded that better.
There are many “insanely good” players in college, but there’s a fine line between a Wade and a Starbury. It was assumed Wade would be good, but did anyone expect him to be this good this quick?
Put it this way, if Shaq had avoided Miami and went elsewhere, would Wade be the player he is today? Hard to think he’d be any better, but he could be less developed than he is now.
May 23, 2006 at 2:52 pm
Fan's Attic
Let me get this straight. MJD took 44 players who (1) have had at least 1 good season in the past couple of years, (2) are, for the most part, young, and (3) says they will be good in 5 years. In my humble opinion, this is absolutely worthless. There are almost 9 complete starting fives in the list and most of these players have already had good years.
Also, he doesn’t take into account potential injuries (except for McGrady it seems). Not to be demeaning, but this list didn’t take very much thought.
For this list to be worthwhile, it needs to address: the likelihood of injury to these players; ability of an older player to alter his game to succeed in the future; and the prospects of players who are stuck on the bench or have just come into the NBA and haven’t had their shot yet. Most importantly, it needs address whether current college players (Noah, Hansbrough, McRoberts, etc.) and high school players (Greg Oden, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Kyle Singler, etc.) will succeed in the NBA. Otherwise this is just list of currently good players that might be good in 5 years.
May 23, 2006 at 3:30 pm
dave
good list, but there are just some guys you KNOW are gonna be on there.
oden + 5 years is going to be enough for shaq v. 2, and you know OJ mayo will be an all-star in 2007-8 if he keeps his head on straight.
May 23, 2006 at 3:30 pm
the mighty mjd
You know, I thought I said that the point was just to illustrate that there could be a ton of outstanding players in the NBA five years from now, and that we could be about to see an amazing era of basketball. I have a vague recollection of typing something similar to that…
It wasn’t really an honest prediction of who’s going to make the All-NBA teams in five years. Obviously, there are countless variables that no human being alive could calculate. Hey, don’t get me wrong… I would LOVE to get out there and scout 15- and 16-year-olds all over the country, as well as compile complete medical histories on every reasonably young player in the NBA. But I just didn’t have time today.
May 23, 2006 at 3:55 pm
KD
Fan’s Attic, the post “doesn’t take much thought”?
Like, a post about Jenn Sterger?
Another fab swish through about how much ESPN sucks?
Like, a post trashing Ahmad Rashad?
Or the one about how “baseball sucks?”
Maybe try the anonymous route, next time.
A damn fine run-thru, MJD.
May 23, 2006 at 4:07 pm
insomniac
Nice list, MJD. I’ve been down on the NBA for years, however it’s pretty clear that we are in the beginning phase of a new era of some fantastic basketball.
But since it’s impossible to see a “top (anything)” list without trying to tear something down…..I do take issue w/ Amare Stoudamire being on the list. Sadly, I think the microfracture surgery was the beginning of the end for him.
May 23, 2006 at 4:40 pm
insomniac
Oh…and I sure hope that ‘taking much thought’ isn’t a prerequisite to having a blog. I for one tend to write my entries while I’m 2/3 asleep and 3/3 buzzed.
May 23, 2006 at 4:41 pm
RT
No Mr. MVP, that’s interesting. How did Nash do in the vote getting?
May 23, 2006 at 6:37 pm
Fan's Attic
Fair is fair. It is easier to be a critic than to be a creator and I can take my lumps. However, my point is that we can’t look at what the NBA has today, which undeniably looks good, and just project out 5 years that those players will look just as good. One need only look at past All-Star Rosters and Drafts and see how quickly things change or which players are flashes in the pan. Players will change and won’t work out as expected.
May 23, 2006 at 7:03 pm
Jimbo Mercy
I hate to nitpick but a 29 year old Tony Parker over a 25 year old Shaun Livingston. Come on.
No Shawn Kemp?
May 24, 2006 at 12:12 am
Ray
No mention of Andrei Kirilenko? Maybe not worth the Max money he’s getting, but does everything, offence, defence. Except for his injury he’s gotten better every year.
May 24, 2006 at 10:13 am
the mighty mjd
Yeah, leaving out Kirilenko was a mistake… my bad.
May 24, 2006 at 10:40 am
B Teezy
Gilbert will be a first teamer, second teamer at best. No way he languishes on the third team for this long. Don’t understand these picks. Maybe accurate for 2008.
May 24, 2006 at 11:14 am
A Manny Fan
Well, as a Celtics fan, I guess we’re screwed for the next five years, seeing as how we don’t have anybody that is even an honorable mention, which is kind of sad because I thought our whole strategy was predicated on our youth movement… Other players forgotten include Josh Smith (28), Ridnour (30), Wilcox (29) and J-rich (30); and for that guy who said that Mek was gonna be better than Yao in 5 years… Maybe you’ll get your wish and Mek won’t be shooting in the low-low forties again from the field or in the sixties from the line. I mean, Yao’s obviously going to fall way off when his *height* fails him and he starts shrinking.
May 25, 2006 at 2:03 am