I have posted embarrassingly little about the NBA, given that the season’s starting tonight. And I’d like to rectify that with about a 4,000-word preview, but… I’m not going to. For those of you who enjoy the NBA coverage (and I’m aware that a great many of you hate it as well), I promise, I’m going to make it up to you.

For now, though… my half-ass, meandering, unedited thoughts on how things will go down this season that will seem completely ignorant about two weeks from now, if they don’t already.

1. Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks are going to be your NBA champion, and I’m sorry for ruining the suspense for you. This team made incredible strides last year, and I think learned a ton… about playoff basketball, about team defense, about leadership, about role definition, about sacrifice. And what I like best about them is that they’re still growing. Avery Johnson is still growing as a coach, Dirk Nowitzki is growing as a player, Josh Howard, Ghana Diop, Devin Harris, even Jerry Stackhouse, in some ways. All growing like a Yukon Gold plant in Stephen Belichick’s closet. They’ll be better this year than they were last year, and last year, they were as close as you can possibly get.

2. LA Clippers. Really, it’s all about what Sam Cassell feels like doing. He has a history of having one great year in a place, and the monkey-wrenching the fuck out of everything the next. Ask Minnesota. But if Cassell’s happy and motivated, I really like the way this team is put together. Best frountcourt in the league.

3. Phoenix Suns. I’m willing to grant that it’s possible for the Suns to win the championship this year, which is a step I’d been unwilling to take the previous two years. I don’t think you’re going to see crazy-explosive-Amare, but they can put themselves in the championship picture even with an Amare at less than 100% effectiveness. I still think the Mavs and Clippers will be better, deeper, more complete teams, though.

4. San Antonio Spurs. I love the way the Spurs play, I love Tim Duncan, I love Manu Ginobili, I love Tony Parker… but the Spurs have been too stagnant while everyone else is trying to get better. If they’re completely healthy come playoff time, I’ll like their chances. I just can’t imagine that being the case, though, and this team isn’t deep enough. Unless Matt Bonner and Jackie Butler are studs and I’m not aware of it… I don’t see it happening for the Spurs this year.

5. Detroit Pistons. I really don’t have any idea what to expect here. They might win 65 games, they might win 45. I hate Flip Saunders. That much, I can tell you… fuck Flip Saunders in the earhole. It’s not even that he took Detroit away from their defensive, physical style of basketball… that, I could live with. But the effort he got from his players wasn’t the same. He doesn’t seem to ever coach anyone, he doesn’t seem to insist on any accountability. The fact that they aren’t a defensive team doesn’t bother me (that would’ve probably had to change eventually, at least to some degree anyway), the fact that they aren’t a disciplined team bothers the hell out of me.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers. LeBron James is probably your MVP, but for the Cavs… I just don’t see it. Ilgauskus, Gooden, Larry Hughes, Eric Snow… all back, all still starting. Those four just aren’t good enough. I don’t know how to say it any other way.

7. Miami Heat. I’m seeing a drop-off here. A group that old, with resumes like theirs… isn’t going to be particularly motivated this season. They didn’t get much better in the off-season (with the exception of the continued development of Dwyane Wade), they just got older. I just don’t know that they’ll be hungry enough… and you don’t have to play balls-out for 82 games, of course, but that sort of thing snowballs. Be it injury, or attitude problems… I dunno. I feel like something’s going to go wrong with this team.

I don’t know that anyone else is particularly relevant to a discussion of championship contenders.