I have posted embarrassingly little about the NBA, given that the season’s starting tonight. And I’d like to rectify that with about a 4,000-word preview, but… I’m not going to. For those of you who enjoy the NBA coverage (and I’m aware that a great many of you hate it as well), I promise, I’m going to make it up to you.
For now, though… my half-ass, meandering, unedited thoughts on how things will go down this season that will seem completely ignorant about two weeks from now, if they don’t already.
1. Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks are going to be your NBA champion, and I’m sorry for ruining the suspense for you. This team made incredible strides last year, and I think learned a ton… about playoff basketball, about team defense, about leadership, about role definition, about sacrifice. And what I like best about them is that they’re still growing. Avery Johnson is still growing as a coach, Dirk Nowitzki is growing as a player, Josh Howard, Ghana Diop, Devin Harris, even Jerry Stackhouse, in some ways. All growing like a Yukon Gold plant in Stephen Belichick’s closet. They’ll be better this year than they were last year, and last year, they were as close as you can possibly get.
2. LA Clippers. Really, it’s all about what Sam Cassell feels like doing. He has a history of having one great year in a place, and the monkey-wrenching the fuck out of everything the next. Ask Minnesota. But if Cassell’s happy and motivated, I really like the way this team is put together. Best frountcourt in the league.
3. Phoenix Suns. I’m willing to grant that it’s possible for the Suns to win the championship this year, which is a step I’d been unwilling to take the previous two years. I don’t think you’re going to see crazy-explosive-Amare, but they can put themselves in the championship picture even with an Amare at less than 100% effectiveness. I still think the Mavs and Clippers will be better, deeper, more complete teams, though.
4. San Antonio Spurs. I love the way the Spurs play, I love Tim Duncan, I love Manu Ginobili, I love Tony Parker… but the Spurs have been too stagnant while everyone else is trying to get better. If they’re completely healthy come playoff time, I’ll like their chances. I just can’t imagine that being the case, though, and this team isn’t deep enough. Unless Matt Bonner and Jackie Butler are studs and I’m not aware of it… I don’t see it happening for the Spurs this year.
5. Detroit Pistons. I really don’t have any idea what to expect here. They might win 65 games, they might win 45. I hate Flip Saunders. That much, I can tell you… fuck Flip Saunders in the earhole. It’s not even that he took Detroit away from their defensive, physical style of basketball… that, I could live with. But the effort he got from his players wasn’t the same. He doesn’t seem to ever coach anyone, he doesn’t seem to insist on any accountability. The fact that they aren’t a defensive team doesn’t bother me (that would’ve probably had to change eventually, at least to some degree anyway), the fact that they aren’t a disciplined team bothers the hell out of me.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers. LeBron James is probably your MVP, but for the Cavs… I just don’t see it. Ilgauskus, Gooden, Larry Hughes, Eric Snow… all back, all still starting. Those four just aren’t good enough. I don’t know how to say it any other way.
7. Miami Heat. I’m seeing a drop-off here. A group that old, with resumes like theirs… isn’t going to be particularly motivated this season. They didn’t get much better in the off-season (with the exception of the continued development of Dwyane Wade), they just got older. I just don’t know that they’ll be hungry enough… and you don’t have to play balls-out for 82 games, of course, but that sort of thing snowballs. Be it injury, or attitude problems… I dunno. I feel like something’s going to go wrong with this team.
I don’t know that anyone else is particularly relevant to a discussion of championship contenders.
bill g
and what about the marbury watch? the francis-marbury-robinson combo is going to have the same “don’t stare” feel as that gruesome crash on the freeway
i don’t know about being a championship contender but i think the magic (and darko) are going to really blossom after the first quarter of the season. they’ll actually be fun to watch with nelson pushing the tempo and have defence to match
October 31, 2006 at 5:14 am
Nils
Kobe!
October 31, 2006 at 6:49 am
Elm Tree
What about the Bulls? They look a lot like Detroit from 4 years ago to me, complete with a great defensive point guard, a two guard from UCONN, a long wiry small forward, and Big Ben in the middle. Plus Scott Skiles is the closest thing to Larry Brown these days. I’m just sayin’
October 31, 2006 at 11:53 am
Zee
“Ghana Diop”
Were you lazy to look online to see what his real name was…or u just figured he is african and giving him another country’s name for a first name wont hurt??
October 31, 2006 at 11:59 am
Fornelli
I think if you’re gonna include the Cavs as “contenders” you’d have to list the Bulls too.
Then again I’m an unrepentant homer.
October 31, 2006 at 1:01 pm
Giddy
Jerry Stackhouse maturing – is that an abstract concept?
October 31, 2006 at 2:29 pm
mc
I predicted Clippers over Bulls, but then again what do I know?
October 31, 2006 at 4:42 pm
J.E. Skeets
NBA BONERS! HUZZAH!
October 31, 2006 at 7:08 pm
Andy
All of the complaints you have about Flip Saunders I have about Rick Carlisle, with the added bonus that the Pacers want him to coach an up-tempo style he has absolutely no experience in, and then released or traded away all of the athletes or team leaders.
Clusterfuck in the making.
Diop’s nickname is Ghana Diop, isn’t it? Doesn’t Mark Cuban call him that?
October 31, 2006 at 7:57 pm
the mighty mjd
Zee – Actually, I figured that that’s his fucking nickname. Just as it was with my favorite player of all time, “Côte d’Ivoire Olajuwon.”
And I suppose a case could be made for the Bulls, but… I don’t think, last year, that they were a “one player away” kind of team. And even if they were, I don’t know that Ben Wallace is that player. I love him, but… the Bulls are already pretty strong defensively. And more defense never hurts, but… A Jermaine O’Neal type of guy might’ve pushed them over the top. I don’t think Ben Wallace puts them quite in this group.
October 31, 2006 at 9:27 pm
charlie
Not to make too much about one game but…
GO BULLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is officially the year of Chicago.
November 1, 2006 at 1:22 am
dukeofmadness
Hey, Bulls fans: Just because the Bears are doing well doesn’t mean the Bulls will, too. I mean, I’m just sayin’…
I guess I’m glad to see Bulls fans excited about their team again. I just wish I could feel the same way. MJD, I think you may be right: They weren’t one man away. They might be one man away this year. Add a big man who can score to the current mix, and you may be on to something.
Still, you gotta like what Paxson and Skiles are doing.
November 1, 2006 at 2:22 am
jeffpotts77
RE: Jackie Butler
It depends how much stock you put into per-minute averages, but Jackie could be a stud center in the making. He averaged nearly 16 points and 10 rebounds per-40-minutes last year. He also shot 54% from the field. Bonner, too, has been solid these past two seasons. Popovich’s talent evaluation ability never ceases to amaze me.
November 1, 2006 at 11:53 am
rj3111
You’re right, the Bulls weren’t “one player away.” However, the whole team is better. Skiles and Paxson, I’m beginning to believe, are complete geniuses. Wallace gives them the veteran precense that they were lacking along with PJ Brown. Hinrich is emerging as a premier point guard. Then take this group; Deng, Nocioni, Gordon, Sweetney, Duhon….all one year better. Tyrus Thomas will be a great young help defender.
I don’t want to make too much of last night’s game with the heat, but the Bulls won by 42 on the road and Ben Gordon went 1-9. Could’ve won by 50+ if he has an “average” game.
November 1, 2006 at 2:16 pm